High-income groups disproportionately contribute to climate extremes worldwide
Two-thirds of warming over 1990–2020 is attributable to the wealthiest 10%
Read the published paper ↗doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02325-x
We link emissions inequality over 1990–2020 to regional climate extremes using an emulator-based framework, in which simplified climate models stand in for complex ones. The emissions counted are those from consumption and investments attributable to each wealth group. We find that two-thirds of warming is attributable to the wealthiest 10% of the global population, and one-fifth to the top 1%. Their individual contributions are 6.5 and 20 times the average per capita contribution.
These disparities carry through to extremes. The top 10% (1%) contributed 7 (26) times the average to increases in monthly 1-in-100-year heat extremes globally, and 6 (17) times more to Amazon droughts. Emissions from the wealthiest 10% in the United States and China alone led to a two- to threefold increase in heat extremes across vulnerable regions, such as the Amazon, Southeast Asia and southeast Africa.
We do not assess what would constitute fair emissions, nor do we assign direct responsibility for the resulting impacts. Recognising these unequal contributions can nevertheless inform policy, from deliberation over a coordinated global wealth tax to efforts to realign financial flows with climate goals. For the wealthiest 1% and 0.1%, contributions to worsening extremes elsewhere arise primarily through investments rather than consumption. Because low-income regions bear the brunt of the harm, the findings also offer a basis for discussions of adaptation and loss and damage.
@article{schongart_high-income_2025,
title = {High-income groups disproportionately contribute to climate extremes worldwide},
volume = {15},
copyright = {All rights reserved},
issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02325-x},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-025-02325-x},
abstract = {Abstract
Climate injustice persists as those least responsible often bear the greatest impacts, both between and within countries. Here we show how GHG emissions from consumption and investments attributable to the wealthiest population groups have disproportionately influenced present-day climate change. We link emissions inequality over the period 1990–2020 to regional climate extremes using an emulator-based framework. We find that two-thirds (one-fifth) of warming is attributable to the wealthiest 10\% (1\%), meaning that individual contributions are 6.5 (20) times the average per capita contribution. For extreme events, the top 10\% (1\%) contributed 7 (26) times the average to increases in monthly 1-in-100-year heat extremes globally and 6 (17) times more to Amazon droughts. Emissions from the wealthiest 10\% in the United States and China led to a two- to threefold increase in heat extremes across vulnerable regions. Quantifying the link between wealth disparities and climate impacts can assist in the discourse on climate equity and justice.},
language = {en},
number = {6},
urldate = {2026-01-13},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
author = {Schöngart, Sarah and Nicholls, Zebedee and Hoffmann, Roman and Pelz, Setu and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich},
month = jun,
year = {2025},
pages = {627--633},
}